Holiday 2025: The New Rules of Retail

Every holiday season has its challenges: rising ad costs, crowded channels, and higher stakes. But in 2025, brands also have to navigate tighter margins, earlier shopping timelines, and more selective consumers. Winning this year means doing more than showing up, it means aligning with how people actually shop and building smart, flexible marketing strategies.

Rising Costs and Tariffs Are Tightening Holiday Margins

Rising costs are hitting everyone this year. Inflation may have eased from its peak, but the cost of essentials like food, fuel, and housing remains high. New and proposed tariffs are also driving up costs in categories like electronics and home goods. For brands that rely on overseas production, those increases are landing just as holiday discounts kick in, leaving less room to absorb rising prices without passing them on to customers.

Consumers are feeling this impact, too. With budgets already tight and expectations high, many are becoming more price-sensitive and more selective about what they buy. They’re asking: Is this gift worth it? Why does this cost more than last year? Should I wait for a deeper discount?

The result is a more cautious, value-driven holiday season for both shoppers and brands. Consumers are demanding more for their money, and brands are operating with thinner margins and less flexibility. Every purchase has to feel worth it.

WITHIN Tip: When price increases can’t be avoided, focus your messaging on emotional and product value.

• Reframe practicality as thoughtful gifting. Use creative and messaging to position everyday products as meaningful gifts. For example, an everyday essential can be framed as a “self-care upgrade.” This helps justify a higher price point by appealing to emotion.
• Be transparent about pricing changes. ​​Use emails, PDPs, and social media to communicate what’s driving the cost, such as better materials, ethical sourcing, or product improvements.
• Reinforce value with social proof. Use reviews, UGC content, and product comparisons to validate your price. This helps shoppers understand why a product is worth the cost by showing them what others love about it.
• Create value without heavy discounting. Bundle bestsellers, offer exclusive perks to loyalty members, or highlight premium features to give customers a reason to buy without sacrificing your margins.

At WITHIN, we help brands build flexible marketing plans that maximize value and drive performance without sacrificing margins.

Global Shipping Volatility Remains a Risk

Global shipping is still unreliable. Freight costs are rising, ports are backed up, and carrier capacity gets tight during the holiday season. These issues tend to spike right when demand does, making it harder (and more expensive) to get products to customers on time.

The problem isn’t just about shipping delays, but about how this affects customer trust. In a holiday season shaped by high expectations and tight timelines, a missed delivery can break trust and jeopardize future purchases. Customers may not care why something is late, they just remember that it was.

WITHIN Tip: Plan for uncertainty on two fronts: fulfillment and customer experience.

• Set clear, early cutoff dates. Move shipping cutoff dates earlier and communicate them clearly across paid, owned, and on-site channels. 
• Prioritize what’s in stock. Use dynamic product ads (DPAs) to highlight what’s in stock and ready to ship. 
• Have a post-shipping plan. As shipping deadlines pass, pivot to promote gift cards, store pickup, or instant delivery options so you can keep driving revenue without missing delivery windows.

WITHIN helps brands stay agile when operations are under pressure, so you can protect revenue, meet deadlines, and keep customer trust.

Holiday Shopping Timelines Are Starting Earlier Than Ever

The holiday season keeps starting earlier. What used to be a November–December sprint is now a months-long build. Brands are launching campaigns earlier to get ahead of rising ad costs, longer consideration windows, and aggressive competition — and shoppers are responding. This year, 42% of U.S. consumers say they plan to start gift buying by October.

For brands, that means waiting until October to launch holiday campaigns is too late. September is now the kickoff. 

WITHIN Tip: Starting early isn’t just about early revenue, it’s about gaining a competitive edge. Brands that launch in September have more time to gather data across creative, audiences, offers, and messaging. This allows for faster optimizations and smarter, data-backed decisions during the most competitive weeks of November and December.

• Run your first wave of holiday campaigns in early September. This lets you capture early buyers and start campaign optimizations before CPMs spike.
• Use October to double down on what’s working. Scale top-performing campaigns, reintroduce winning creative, and keep messaging aligned with buyer intent because many shoppers are ready to purchase, not just browse.

WITHIN helps brands build early momentum and scale what works, before your competitors even get started.

AI Tools Are Reshaping Product Discovery

AI is becoming an increasingly important part of the shopping experience. According to Salesforce, 5% of all shoppers now start their product searches with AI tools like ChatGPT, Perplexity, or Gemini. This number jumps to 10% for Gen Z, and 39% of shoppers overall report using an AI chat at some point during their shopping journey.

This trend is raising consumer expectations. They want product suggestions that are personal, helpful, and instantly accessible. Brands that leverage AI to help people discover products and make decisions will be better positioned to win their attention.

WITHIN Tips: The challenge isn’t just about SEO keywords anymore. It’s about being the most credible, detailed, and conversational answer to a user’s question. AI models favor structured data and human-friendly, helpful copy.

• Make your product catalog easy for AI to read. Clean titles, detailed descriptions, accurate attributes (sizes, colors, materials), and rich images make it easier for AI to surface your products in queries.
• Write product pages like you’re talking to a shopper. Use clear, conversational language that answers real questions (“Does this run small?” “What’s it made of?”). This improves AI discoverability and shopper’s confidence to buy.
• Use predictive AI to personalize offers. Leverage predictive tools like Meta Advantage+ and Google’s Smart Bidding. These platforms use behavioral data to deliver the right product to the right customer at the right time.

WITHIN can optimize your PDPs and product feed for AI discovery so you don’t get left out of the search.

Channel Expectations Are Shifting Toward Seamless Journeys

Shoppers don’t think in channels, they expect one seamless experience. During the holidays, that expectation intensifies, and gaps between channels become missed revenue opportunities.

Think of it this way: A shopper first hears about your holiday collection through an influencer’s TikTok and clicks through to browse your site. They add a few items to their cart. Later, they’re retargeted with an ad on Instagram that reminds them what they left behind. That prompts them to go to your store and see the products in person. At checkout, they opt in to your loyalty program. A few days later, they receive an email highlighting complementary products and their first loyalty reward, which draws them back to your online gift guide.

WITHIN Tips: The real opportunity lies in using data to connect channels. The brands that stand out this holiday season will be those that use signals from one channel to personalize the experience on another.

• Automate follow-ups. Use behavior-based triggers to re-engage customers across channels. For example, send a follow-up email with product recommendations after an in-store visit.
• Unify your customer data. Connect your CRM, email, SMS, ad platforms, and in-store systems to ensure personalization is consistent and seamless across channels.
• Connect paid and owned channels through consistent creative. Ensure messaging and visual cues are aligned across paid social, display, email, and in-store to create a seamless, recognizable experience at every touchpoint.

At WITHIN, our integrated teams build unified, data-powered strategies. We turn every customer touchpoint into a seamless, revenue-driving experience.

Holiday 2025 Isn’t Business as Usual

The brands still running last year’s playbook won’t see returns from it. Consumers are shopping earlier, spending smarter, and expecting seamless, high-value experiences this year. The brands that win will test early, pivot fast, and align every touchpoint to how people actually shop.

That’s where WITHIN comes in. We connect media, creative, commerce, and customer experiences to build full-funnel strategies that drive results. Ready to see how it all comes together? Let’s talk.